Guest contributor

James Shwe

Myanmar stands at a historic crossroads. The people’s revolution, born in response to the 2021 military coup, has evolved into a nationwide struggle for dignity, justice, and a genuine federal democracy. 

As the resistance movement advances on the battlefield and in liberated territories of the country, a critical question arises: Should the movement negotiate for peace with the junta now, or continue fighting until the military’s power is decisively broken?

Recent developments—on the ground, regionally, and internationally—make the answer clear: The resistance must maintain and intensify pressure on all fronts—military, economic, political, and diplomatic—while remaining open to principled negotiations only when the junta is thoroughly weakened. 

This strategy, however, hinges on a united front led by the National Unity Government (NUG) and its partners, with the unwavering support of all resistance forces and the international community.

Lessons from history 

As Zin Mar Aung, the NUG Foreign Minister, powerfully argued in her Bangkok Post article “Support the People’s Revolution,” Myanmar’s struggle echoes the long, arduous journey that led to modern China—a people’s movement, rooted in the aspirations of ordinary citizens, facing down a militarized regime propped up by foreign interests. 

The goal is not vengeance but transformation: to build a professional, accountable military under civilian control, and to establish a federal democracy that reflects the will of all Myanmar’s peoples.

Why premature negotiation risks failure

Despite significant territorial gains, the junta retains control over key urban centers and maintains brutal airpower. Its strategy remains unchanged: blockade resistance-held areas, escalate violence, and stage sham elections to secure international legitimacy, aided by enablers like China, Russia, and, at times, Thailand. 

Negotiating now, when the military still has leverage, risks legitimizing its rule and betraying the sacrifices of millions. The resistance, as the NUG and countless activists have made clear, cannot accept any settlement that leaves the military’s grip intact or betrays the people’s demand for genuine democracy.

The international landscape: Divided, but evolving

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remains divided. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore have shown willingness to engage the NUG and Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs), while others, including Thailand, hedge their bets for strategic reasons. 

The upcoming ASEAN meetings in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, are a critical test: Will the bloc move beyond the failed Five-Point Consensus and recognize the resistance as Myanmar’s legitimate voice, or continue to grant the junta diplomatic cover?

China and Russia: Strategic calculations

China and Russia continue to shield the junta diplomatically and economically, but even Beijing’s patience is not unlimited. As Zin Mar Aung notes, China’s long-term interests—stability, economic partnership, and regional prosperity—are best served by a peaceful, democratic Myanmar. 

The NUG has signaled willingness to protect Chinese investments and cooperate on shared interests, provided China engages with all parties, not just the military.

The West and global forums

Western governments have imposed sanctions, condemned the junta’s violence, and supported the NUG and the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) in international forums such as the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU). 

The IPU remains a key platform for delegitimizing the military and amplifying the voice of the resistance movement. However, global leverage is limited, and the West’s support must be matched by unity and credibility within the resistance itself.

The imperative of unity: Recommendations for the resistance

1. Continue relentless pressure on all fronts

• Military: Expand liberated areas, disrupt military supply lines, and coordinate among NUG, EROs, and PDFs.
• Economic: Undermine the military’s revenue streams, expose foreign complicity, and support local economies in resistance-held territories.
• Political: Boycott sham elections, build inclusive federal structures, and maintain unity among diverse resistance groups.
• Diplomatic: Engage ASEAN’s progressive members, leverage international platforms like the IPU, and mobilize the diaspora and civil society to keep global attention and pressure on the junta.

2. Support the NUG as the international face of the resistance

The NUG is the only organized leadership recognized internationally and the primary channel for diplomatic engagement and humanitarian aid. 

Constructive criticism and advocacy are healthy and necessary, but efforts to tear down the NUG only serve the miltary’s interests. The resistance, both inside and outside Myanmar, must support the NUG’s legitimacy and work to strengthen its capacity.

3. Form a transitional united front

The NUG and EROs should urgently form a transitional body capable of presenting a united international front. This body should include proportional representation from all major groups, with clear mechanisms for consensus-building, conflict resolution, and shared leadership. A united front will enhance the resistance’s credibility and bargaining power in future negotiations.

4. Foster internal communication and collaboration

The People’s Defense Force (PDF) and other political groups inside Myanmar should prioritize communication, cooperation, coordination, and collaboration with the NUG, rather than disparaging or undermining it. Disunity only benefits the military. A united resistance—militarily, politically, and diplomatically—is imperative for victory.

5. Leverage international opportunities

• ASEAN: Work with supportive ASEAN members to push for the exclusion of the military from regional forums and recognition of the NUG and EROs as legitimate representatives.
• Global advocacy: Mobilize the diaspora and civil society to lobby governments and international organizations for sustained sanctions, humanitarian aid, and accountability for the military’s crimes.
• International platforms: Utilize forums like the IPU and the U.N. to challenge the military’s legitimacy and build alliances with democratic states.

6. Prepare for negotiations—But only from strength

Negotiations may eventually be necessary, but only when the military is too weak to dictate terms. Any talks must be inclusive, involve all resistance stakeholders, and guarantee a path to genuine federal democracy, justice for victims, and the non-return of military dictatorship.

Unity and relentless pressure will lead to victory

Myanmar’s resistance is not just a struggle for power—it is a fight for the nation’s soul. The international community, especially ASEAN and China, must recognize that only a people-led transition can bring true peace and stability. 

The resistance’s best chance is to keep fighting—militarily, economically, politically, and diplomatically—until the military is too weak to dictate terms. Only then will meaningful negotiations, leading to a truly democratic and federal Myanmar, become possible.

A united front—anchored by the NUG, EROs, PDF, and all pro-democracy forces—is not just desirable; it is essential. The sacrifices of the Myanmar people demand nothing less.

James Shwe is a Myanmar democracy activist in the U.S. and is a member of the advocacy groups Free Myanmar and the Los Angeles Myanmar Movement. He has been trying to organize and motivate the Myanmar diaspora to advocate for democracy in Myanmar.

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