Insofar as the Union government’s agenda for ethnic reconciliation is concerned, there is little doubt that the north, where the most powerful rebel armies operate, holds the key to a permanent negotiated settlement.

Some 6,000 Shan refugees – many of whom fled conflict at home more than 20 years ago and sought refuge in camps along the Thai-Burmese border – are about to experience a severe cut in international assistance.

The Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee released a statement on Thursday conveying the ethnic armed bloc’s intention to join the next iteration of the government’s 21st Century Panglong Conference if its members are officially invited to do so.

Aung Kyi, the head of the Peace Commission, told DVB that they hoped the ethnic rebel alliance would be “involved in the peace process very soon”.

The government Peace Commission is preparing to meet “soon” with members of a recently formed alliance of ethnic armed groups based largely in Burma’s north, an apparent signal that the new coalition is increasingly viewed as an important factor in the peace process calculus.

The dwindling alliance of ethnic armed groups joined under the United Nationalities Federal Council banner convenes a conference in Thailand chaired by a leader of one of its former members, the influential Kachin Independence Army.