Guest contributor
Salai Dokhar
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the Joint Session of the U.S. Congress on June 23, 2023 during his visit to the U.S. from June 20-24, 2023. In his speech, he proudly highlighted India’s democratic values, stating:
“Democracy is one of our sacred and shared values. It has evolved over a long time and taken various forms and systems. Throughout history, however, one thing has been clear. Democracy is the spirit that supports equality and dignity. Democracy is the idea that welcomes debate and discourse. Democracy is the culture that gives wings to thought and expression. India is blessed to have such values from times immemorial. In the evolution of the democratic spirit, India is the Mother of Democracy.“
Narendra Modi
He also emphasized India’s rapid economic growth:
“When I first visited the U.S. as Prime Minister, India was the tenth-largest economy in the world. Today, India is the fifth-largest economy. And India will be the third-largest economy soon.”
Narendra Modi
In October 2024, Modi attended the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, and later, in August, he made a historic visit to Kyiv, becoming the first Indian leader to visit Ukraine since its independence in 1991. His visit to Ukraine was part of international efforts to secure peace amidst the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
While India positions itself as a global peacemaker and an emerging superpower, these actions raise critical questions about its approach to its internal and regional crises.
Opposition voices in India question why Modi appears to prioritize international peace building while allegedly ignoring domestic conflicts like the crisis in India’s northeastern Manipur State.
Similarly, the people of Myanmar question why India, the self-proclaimed “Mother of Democracy,” fails to support their democracy movement against a brutal military coup in 2021.
Since the coup in Myanmar, India has appeared to align with the military, a stance explained by many Indian experts and officials who cite historical precedents.
During the 1988 pro-democracy movement in Myanmar, India fully supported it. However, when the movement failed, the Myanmar military grew closer to China. As a result, India now faces concerns about making the “wrong” choice in the Myanmar crisis.
India’s current support for the Myanmar military surpasses that of China and Russia in some respects. While even China and Russia have not shared the same level of international platforms with the military, India has done so, notably at the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) summits.
Regarding BIMSTEC, allowing the military to represent Myanmar as its government, 136 Myanmar Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) signed an open letter on March 23, 2022, to India and all members of BIMSTEC with three demands before the 5th BIMSTEC summit on March 30 in Sri Lanka. These demands were:
- BIMSTEC must disassociate itself and cut all ties with the military junta, which was established by the Myanmar military, accused of committing genocide, war crimes, and many acts of crimes against humanity.
- The demands of the democracy movement and the spring revolution of the Myanmar people must be respected and recognized.
- There cannot be a peaceful, prosperous, and sustainable Bay of Bengal region if democracy and human rights cease to thrive.
They called on leaders of BIMSTEC member states to discuss and decide on the issues of Myanmar, considering humanity and human dignity.
Furthermore, India maintains a ministerial-level relationship with the military, imposes no sanctions, continues to sell weapons and engage in trade, supports the military’s sham election plan, sustains diplomatic relations, provides it access to international platforms, and allows direct Kyat-Rupee trading to bypass international sanctions.
Meanwhile, on behalf of the people of Myanmar, 183 Myanmar CSOs have sent open letters to Indian CSOs and political parties, including Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with four demands:
- Show and express support for democracy and the people of Myanmar.
- Pressure the Government of India to stop providing political legitimacy and arms to Myanmar’s military.
- Pressure the Government of India to impose economic sanctions on Myanmar’s military.
- Help and support displaced people and refugees from Myanmar, and pressure the Government of India to provide humanitarian assistance to them.
On Sept. 7, 2023, India for Myanmar, Burmese Affairs and the Conflict Study Group jointly launched an investigative report on India’s policy and relationship with the Myanmar military over the past 30 months, demanding seven points from the Indian government.
Additionally, India for Myanmar and the Myanmar Hindu Union jointly sent an open letter to India on August 22, 2024, appealing for intervention on behalf of the Hindu community in Myanmar and reporting the crisis facing that community.
Moreover, 268 Myanmar CSOs wrote another open letter to the Government of India on September 21, 2024, with four key demands:
- Stop the sale and transfer of arms and related materials to the Myanmar junta.
- Avoid any engagements that could lend legitimacy to the Myanmar junta.
- Avoid extending business cooperation with the Myanmar junta.
- Release all detained Myanmar refugees in India and provide humanitarian assistance.
Through the India for Myanmar movement, the people of Myanmar repeatedly appealed to India with internal letters for support in their democracy movement to restore peace and stability, form a federal democratic country, and provide humanitarian aid.
They have requested India to open its borders, provide food and shelter, halt arms sales to the military, impose sanctions, cut diplomatic ties, revoke the military’s representation in BIMSTEC, and suspend direct Kyat-Rupee trading.
However, India’s central government’s response has largely been to deport 70 Myanmar nationals back into the hands of the military, close the border, issue deportation orders for all Myanmar refugees, and arrest hundreds of refugees under the Foreigners Act, detaining them indefinitely.
Myanmar refugees have also been accused of contributing to the long-standing Manipur conflict, while border fencing efforts are focused on preventing further refugee entry. This approach contrasts with the empathy shown by Indian state governments and local populations with cultural and ethnic ties to Myanmar nationals.
Such actions have left many questioning India’s commitment to democracy and humanitarian values in its neighboring country.
Gradually, as resistance groups gained full control over military bases in border areas and took over most of India’s investments in Myanmar, India realized it could no longer ignore the democracy movement.
Consequently, India began expressing concern over the Myanmar crisis in meetings with democratic countries, including the U.S. Furthermore, India started revising its policy to engage with the Myanmar crisis.
This shift, though delayed, is still timely, as China’s interference in the Myanmar crisis relies heavily on military power. India, however, still holds the best opportunity to influence the situation positively.
When China approaches the Myanmar crisis, it prioritizes and centralizes the interests of the military, aiming for an outcome that cements China’s influence over Myanmar.
Conversely, Western nations approach the crisis by prioritizing democratic values, focusing on dialogue but often taking limited action. These approaches frequently put Western nations at odds with China.
The people of Myanmar are concerned that these conflicting approaches might escalate into a proxy war between China and Western powers on Myanmar soil. Despite India’s delayed involvement, it has the potential to become the most trusted stakeholder for Myanmar, capable of leading efforts toward peace.
However, to gain this trust, India must address two critical questions from the people of Myanmar:
- Why does the world’s fifth-largest economy appear constrained by indirect pressure from China when dealing with a neighboring country?
- Why is the “Mother of Democracy” overlooking Myanmar’s historic democracy movement?
Answering these questions openly and decisively will solidify India’s role as a fair and trusted partner in resolving the Myanmar crisis. The reason is that when India began planning its initial engagement with resistance groups, it attempted to do so in an official capacity.
India only invited officials from pro-military political parties and some Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) that had signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). Meanwhile, India met with certain resistance groups unofficially.
According to some sources, this approach was influenced by pressure from the military, which discouraged India from officially inviting resistance groups.
Additionally, China exerted pressure on certain EAOs, particularly the Kachin Independence Organization/Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA) and the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), to avoid attending any Indian meetings.
As a result, India avoided holding official meetings with resistance groups due to complaints from the military and indirect pressure from China. In contrast, countries like Thailand and Indonesia openly announced their official meetings with resistance groups, while India remained silent under indirect pressure from China, exerted through the military.
India must adopt the principle of “fair engagement” to address critical questions such as: “Why is the world’s fifth-largest economy succumbing to indirect pressure from China on issues related to its own neighboring country?”
Additionally, India must respond to the question: “Why is the ‘Mother of Democracy’ overlooking Myanmar’s historic democracy movement?” by taking the following steps:
- Releasing all detained Myanmar refugees in Manipur and Assam states.
- Systematically managing the situation of Myanmar refugees and allowing the international community to provide support.
- Demonstrating solidarity with the people of Myanmar in their courageous fight for democracy.
By taking these steps, India can align its actions with its democratic values and actively support the aspirations of the Myanmar people.
India learned a significant lesson from Myanmar during the 1988 Uprising, realizing it failed to adequately support the democracy movement at the time.
However, an important question arises: if India is not a superpower, would authoritarian leaders choose India over China to protect them? The answer is likely no, as figures like Min Aung Hlaing rely on the U.N. veto power of countries like China and Russia to shield them from international accountability.
As a result, India is unlikely to be the military’s first choice for support. Nevertheless, India appears to be overly cautious in managing its relationship with the Myanmar military, largely due to indirect pressure from China. This approach has left India with little to gain from Myanmar except a tarnished reputation and the sorrow of its people.
However, India’s support for Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement in 1988 remains unforgettable for Myanmar’s leaders. When Aung San Suu Kyi came to power in 2015, India became one of Myanmar’s most valued partners.
From Myanmar’s perspective, India made the right choice in 1988, and if Myanmar transitions to a federal democratic state, India stands to be the greatest beneficiary among its neighboring countries.
India must, therefore, confidently compete with China without succumbing to undue pressure to address the Myanmar crisis. At this juncture, India does not need to take sides; rather, it should engage fairly with all stakeholders.
By adopting a neutral and balanced approach, prioritizing the aspirations of the Myanmar people, and pursuing fair engagement with all parties, India can play a pivotal role in resolving the Myanmar crisis.
India will find it challenging to compete with China’s actions through countermeasures alone, as China has heavily invested in supporting EAOs based along its border and the military in Naypyidaw.
However, India can counter China’s influence in Myanmar by gaining the trust of the Myanmar people, proposing an acceptable solution to the Myanmar crisis, and fostering cooperation among both internal and external stakeholders, including direct and indirect actors.
Salai Dokhar is the founder of India for Myanmar, a New Delhi-based group advocating for human rights and democracy in Myanmar.
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