Was it a step forward or a flop? A real discussion or a public relations stunt? Whatever the verdict is, the 19 December “retreat” of ASEAN foreign ministers in Burma on the touchy Rohingya issue was itself the message.
The meeting was not expected to solve the rising worries about Burma’s internal ethnic tensions and their impact on Southeast Asia. Playing referee was not a role ASEAN’s founders had in mind when they created it nearly five decades ago. In fact, ASEAN has had a much longer history sticking to its noninterference principle rather than being a mediator — even more so with “internal” issues.
Critics of the Rangoon retreat, which Burma called in the wake of open criticism by Malaysia and quieter but not less serious concern by Indonesia, said that it yielded no earth-shaking results. They say other ASEAN members were taken in by Burma’s “sweet talk” to ease criticism about the situation of Rohingya Muslims in western Arakan State.
Humanitarian and rights concerns are rising given reports of arson, targeted and extrajudicial killings of Rohingya Muslims by Burma’s security forces since an October armed attack on border guard posts in Arakan. The Burmese government denies persecuting the 1.2 million Rohingya, who have been largely disenfranchised and many of whom now live in refugee camps where movements are restricted.
No small import
But against the backdrop of ASEAN’s cautious — some say tepid — diplomacy, which marks its 50th year in 2017, this month’s meeting was of no small import. It made the point that inter-communal tension and humanitarian strife in Arakan State rank high among Southeast Asia’s security headaches — and are now on the ASEAN agenda.
Burma has thus far been testy about the situation in Arakan. Its de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, has complained about the international community “always drumming up cause for bigger fires of resentment” between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in the state, which has one of the highest poverty rates in the country.
“There has never been a regional meeting specifically to discuss this issue, and any multilateral meeting in the region in the past was not initiated by Myanmar, the country of origin,” said Moe Thuzar, coordinator of the Myanmar Studies Programme of the ASEAN Studies Centre in Singapore. “So this [month’s] meeting — which was really a more detailed face-to-face briefing by Daw Suu to her foreign counterparts — is a step forward from the Myanmar government’s previous reluctance to discuss it.”
This month’s retreat may well get a regional conversation started on a domestic topic that has clear spillover effects on Southeast Asia and beyond.
The meeting’s weight becomes clearer given that more than a year ago — in May and December 2015 — the only multilateral discussions on the Rohingya could not even use the word “Rohingya” as the Burmese government preferred the term “Rohingya Bengalis” or “descendants of migrants from Bangladesh.” Hosted by Thailand after the crisis sparked by boatloads of desperate Rohingya fleeing Burma, they were called conferences on “irregular migration in the Indian Ocean.”
But as ASEAN transforms itself from an organisation to a community, expectations are inevitable that it helps keep a peaceful environment among member nations.
ASEAN has had previous forays into mediation on issues of regional concern.
In 2011, Indonesia, then ASEAN chair, brokered a truce between Thailand and Cambodia during their spat over the disputed Preah Vihear temple.
The Southeast Asian grouping has quietly played a role in Burma’s recent history including its 2008 facilitation of the international humanitarian response in the wake of Cyclone Nargis, when Burma was still wary of external actors. Its decades of engagement gave the then military-led Burmese government a level of comfort with it.
Viewing Burma’s political change as a fruit of their constructive engagement policy, other ASEAN members would not want to see this “success” unravel due to inter-communal tensions from within. In its middle age, ASEAN may have to find a creative way of tweaking its principle of non-interference and adapt to newer realities using its unique brand of quiet diplomacy.
Much of ASEAN’s way is to speak more softly to the world, but more frankly among themselves.
“I would think that this [month’s retreat] shows the connection between ASEAN’s quiet diplomacy and the noninterference principle, and the illustration of this combination has usually been in trying to assist Myanmar,” added the ASEAN Studies Centre’s Moe Thuzar.
Burma’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its “readiness to grant necessary humanitarian access and to keep ASEAN members informed of developments in the Rakhine [Arakan] State.” Suu Kyi stressed “the need for time and space for the government’s efforts to bear fruit.” But no ASEAN mechanism to monitor the situation, or next step, was announced.
Though the religious aspect of the Rohingya issue often makes headlines and stirs emotions across Islamic communities, the Arakan situation is worrisome to ASEAN due to a wider mix of security reasons.
Instability in the state adds tension to Burma’s internal ethnic conflicts, specifically the increased fighting by ethnic armies in Kachin and Shan states.
The internal conflicts resulted in the displacement of 218,000 people, of which 78 percent are women and children, living in camps or camp-like situations in Kachin, Shan and Arakan states, said the UN Humanitarian Needs Review report this month.
Up to 15,000 people may have fled across Burma’s border into China from Kachin and Shan in the past month, UN officials say.
There are worries that the more Arakan State simmers, the more it can nurture radical elements from within the Rohingya community and elsewhere, against the backdrop of Islamic State’s presumed search for other arenas of struggle in Asia.
In a recent report, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group mentioned “a new Muslim insurgency” in Arakan State that involves a “well-organised, apparently wellfunded group” led by “Rohingya émigrés in Saudi Arabia and commanded on the ground by Rohingya with international training and experience in modern guerrilla war tactics.”
Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia worry about radicalisation at home. Thailand and the Philippines have restive southern areas which are home to Muslims, and so it is not hard to grasp their concerns if a magnet for extremists emerges in their midst.
So far, Burma’s neighbours have conveyed worries about humanitarian concerns and the lack of independent access to the conflict areas.
While ASEAN is in its early days of shaping a role in the cross-border implications of Arakan State’s volatility and stability in Burma, the retreat at least made it clear that this “internal” matter is now officially an ASEAN issue.
This story by Johanna Son was originally published by the Bangkok Post.