Political analysts from Myanmar told DVB that the military may intensify pressure on the Arakan Army (AA) in Arakan State following the China-brokered ceasefire deals reached with its fellow Brotherhood Alliance members — the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on Oct. 29 and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) on Jan. 18.
“Around 500 troops from the Light Infantry Division 11 from Yangon Region have been transferred to Kyaukphyu Township [Arakan State],” Zin Yaw, a Myanmar Army defector who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) in opposition to the 2021 military coup, told DVB.
The Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the AA, the TNLA, and the MNDAA, launched Operation 1027 on Oct. 27, 2023 rapidly taking over many towns and trade gates along the Myanmar-China border.
Narinjara News, a local media outlet covering Arakan State, reported on Dec. 2 that the AA recaptured the regime’s Thaing Chaung Dam outpost in Kyaukphyu Township on Dec. 1, after losing it to regime forces on Nov. 10.
The report added that the AA also captured several smaller posts guarding the meteorological station in Kyaukphyu’s Minpyin village, following fighting Dec. 1–2.
Kyaukphyu is located 317 miles (510 km) south of the Arakan State capital Sittwe. The deep sea port in Kyaukphyu serves as a strategic hub for Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, including oil and gas pipelines, electrical power facilities, and transportation networks.
A source close to the AA told DVB that at least 20 regime troops were killed by artillery during fighting in Kyaukphyu’s Minpyin village on Nov. 14.
Myo Kyaw, the general secretary of the now-dissolved Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) party, told DVB that regime forces have been deployed both inside Kyaukphyu and up to 20 miles (32 km) outside the town.
Sources told DVB that the regime is planning to launch a counteroffensive to retake Ann, Taungup, Thandwe and Gwa townships from the AA ahead of elections scheduled to begin on Dec. 28.
The four towns are located 198-584 miles (318-939 km) south of Sittwe. They were seized by the AA in 2024 following the launch of its statewide offensive on Nov. 13, 2023.
Zin Yaw told DVB that the AA needs to recall its forces from neighboring Ayeyarwady, Magway and Bago regions in order to effectively defend against the regime’s counteroffensive in its homeland.
The AA expanded its offensive to the neighboring regions last December. It seized control of 14 townships in Arakan, as well as Paletwa Township in southern Chinland.
The Union Election Commission (UEC) announced that it will hold polls in Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung, in areas under regime control.
At least 125 civilians have been killed in attacks carried out by the Myanmar Air Force in Arakan State since March 28, according to DVB data.
