Myanmar’s economy expected to shrink by one percent

The World Bank released a report on Wednesday stating that Burma’s economy is expected to shrink by one percent this fiscal year, by March 2025, rather than grow by one percent as was projected in June. Nearly 25 percent of the 55 million people in Burma are facing food insecurity due to inflation caused by the crisis since the 2021 military coup.

“The level and intensity of armed conflict remains high, severely affecting lives and livelihoods, disrupting production and supply chains, and heightening uncertainty around the economic outlook,” stated the Myanmar Economic Monitor released on Dec. 11. “Even assuming no further escalation in conflict, growth is expected to remain subdued the following year.”

Multiple sectors of Burma’s economy are struggling, stated the World Bank. Agricultural production is expected to drop following the remnants of Typhoon Yagi, which struck the country on Sept. 9. The U.N. cited one million people impacted by the resulting floods nationwide. Inflation in Burma is expected to remain at 26 percent, in annual average terms this fiscal year, which is slightly lower than the 27.5 percent in 2023-24.

Ayeyarwady Region beefs up security near Arakan State

Regime Chief Minister for Ayeyarwady Region Tin Maung Win ordered his administration and the military to be on alert on Tuesday. Security in more than 10 towns, including Ngayokekaung and Bogale, located 63-87 miles (101-140 km) southeast of the Ayeyarwady Region capital Pathein, has increased since Sunday. 

The regime is worried about a potential spillover from fighting between the Arakan Army (AA) and the military in neighboring Gwa Township of southern Arakan State. “The Chief Minister made a verbal order to put a special attention on security while he attended the National Sports Festival in Naypyidaw,” a source from his administration in Ayeyarwady Region told DVB on the condition of anonymity. 

More than 200 civilians have been trapped in Yahaikwin village, located three miles (4 km) from Gwa, due to fighting since Wednesday. A Pathein resident said that the military presence in Gaw Yin Gyi island and Chaungtha, 37 miles (59 km) west of the state capital, have increased since Tuesday. The AA now controls 12 townships in Arakan and one in southern Chinland. It continues its most recent offensive – launched on Nov. 13, 2023 – in Ann, Taungup and Gwa.

Registration fees for social welfare groups surge

Social welfare organizations in Burma told DVB that they are facing an increase in registration fees by the regime since November. They were previously required to maintain a 100,000 kyat balance in their bank accounts to operate but are now required to have 15-100 million kyat ($3,409 – $22,727 USD) in their bank accounts depending on how widely they operate. 

“Some organizations might suspend operations due to these higher fees. These groups don’t have income like businesses, and some are considering not registering at all,” a member of an aid group told DVB on the condition of anonymity. The member added that only 30 percent of the total amount in the bank account can be used for operational expenses. The remaining amount must be held as a deposit at regime-run banks. 

Over 3,000 aid groups are currently registered or are awaiting registration under the Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, according to the regime’s 2023-24 records. Most rely on donations to provide free services to the public. But some aid groups, along with many operating in resistance-held areas of the country, remain unregistered. Since the 2021 coup, there have been arrests of individuals working at social welfare organizations on accusations of supporting resistance groups. 

News by Region 

MANDALAY—A woman was killed and five others were injured by airstrikes carried out by the Burma Air Force on Moenaungkhin village of Taunghta Township, 82 miles (131 km) from the city of Mandalay, on Tuesday. Moenaungkhin residents said that an unknown number of homes were destroyed by the airstrikes. 

“The village is located two miles from [Taunghta] and there is no ongoing fighting. A fighter jet from Meiktila Air Base dropped two bombs and we could say they intentionally targeted civilians,” a People’s Defense Force (PDF) spokesperson in Taunghta told DVB. The injured civilians have received medical treatment from trained medics working with the PDF.

MON—The Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM) states that over 100 homes have been sealed off by the state’s regime administration, belonging to civilians, pro-democracy activists, and family members of those in the resistance to the 2021 coup. 

“They do whatever they want and do not abide by the law,” a Kyaikhto Revolution Force spokesperson told DVB, alleging that more than 10 homes belonging to its members were sealed off by the regime. The National League for Democracy (NLD) party stated that over 800 homes belonging to civilians and NLD party members have been sealed by the regime nationwide since 2021.

YANGON—Two people were injured and a vehicle was damaged after a grenade was thrown at a municipal office in Tamwe Township on Tuesday. A resistance group calling itself Freeland Attack Force claimed responsibility. “There were three municipal staff inside the office when we attacked,” a spokesperson told DVB, alleging that the two staff had provided security to census workers. It also claimed that staff demanded bribes from local vendors. Pro-military Telegram channels claimed that two civilians were also injured during the grenade attack on Dec. 10.

(Exchange rate: $1 USD = 4,400 kyat)

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