Following tightly controlled elections that ended in January, Myanmar’s military has formally entrenched its grip on power since seizing it in a February 2021 coup, installing regime leader Min Aung Hlaing as president of a new, nominally civilian, administration.
Despite the attempt at a fresh start for the regime in Naypyidaw, a new report from the International Crisis Group titled: “Myanmar’s New Administration: Military Consolidation, Not Transition” warns that the underlying drivers of the country’s devastating conflict since 2021 remain unresolved.
“The uniforms may have changed to civilian clothes, but this is not a political transition. The elections have consolidated military rule behind a constitutional façade, while leaving the drivers of armed conflict and economic decline largely unchanged,” said Richard Horsey, the senior Myanmar advisor at the International Crisis Group.
With indispensable backing from China, the regime has stabilized its battlefield losses and reduced its diplomatic isolation, even as the country faces a spiraling economic crisis and an explosion of transnational organized crime.
A scripted electoral mandate
The elections, held in three phases from December 2025 to January 2026, were heavily engineered to ensure military dominance. The military-proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secured a decisive landslide, winning 339 of the 420 contested seats.
Because Myanmar’s 2008 constitution automatically reserves 25 per cent of parliamentary seats for military appointees, military-aligned lawmakers now control over 86 per cent of the new legislature.
The electoral playing field was tightly circumscribed: the National League for Democracy (NLD) party was dissolved, and polling was canceled in vast swaths of the country affected by armed conflict. Authorities reported a voter turnout of just 54 per cent, reflecting widespread public apathy and hostility toward the process.
On April 10, the new pro-military parliament inaugurated Min Aung Hlaing as president. He had stepped down as commander-in-chief, handing the reins to General Ye Win Oo, a close ally and former head of military intelligence.
Battlefield shifts and Beijing’s embrace
For the regime, the political transition comes on the heels of severe battlefield turbulence. However, after facing near-existential threats from resistance forces in 2023 and 2024, the military has regained a degree of momentum.
Aided by a deeply unpopular conscription drive, improved drone capabilities, and critical intervention from Beijing, Naypyidaw has managed to halt its territorial losses in key regions.
China brokered ceasefires with major northern armed groups—the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—allowing the military to redeploy reinforcements to other embattled regions, such as Mandalay Region and Karenni State.
Despite these tactical gains, the military continues to struggle against its most formidable opponents. The Arakan Army (AA) maintains a stranglehold over most of Rakhine State, while the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) dominates strategic, resource-rich territories in the north, including rare earth mining hubs crucial to Chinese supply chains.
Economic shocks and transnational crime
While Min Aung Hlaing had hoped the new administration would project stability, Naypyidaw is currently confronting a severe economic shock. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has dramatically disrupted global supply chains, exposing Myanmar’s vulnerability to external pressures.
Acute shortages and skyrocketing prices for imported fuel and fertilizers threaten to devastate the upcoming agricultural season, raising fears of severe food insecurity and urban unrest.
Simultaneously, the political vacuum has transformed Myanmar’s borderlands into global hubs for illicit activity. The expansion of transnational organized crime—including narcotics production, human trafficking, and industrial-scale scam centers—has had severe global repercussions.
The U.S. State Department estimates that American citizens alone lost at least $10 billion USD to Southeast Asian scam operations in 2024, prompting the FBI to launch a dedicated Scam Center Strike Force.
A fractured international response
Myanmar’s diplomatic standing is slowly shifting as regional powers prioritize pragmatic engagement over isolation. China has been the decisive actor, actively shielding Naypyidaw to protect its border stability and strategic investments.
Other regional players are following suit. India recently hosted Min Aung Hlaing for an official state visit, while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is increasingly divided, with countries like Thailand pushing for full diplomatic normalization.
Meanwhile, Western nations have largely relegated Myanmar to a lower foreign policy priority. While the U.S. maintains its targeted sanctions framework, there are signs of transactional engagement under the Trump administration.
In a notable departure from previous diplomatic protocol, President Donald Trump addressed a July 2025 tariff letter to Min Aung Hlaing in a head-of-state capacity, and Washington has cooperated with the regime on deporting Myanmar nationals from the U.S.
International watchdogs argue that foreign governments must make Myanmar a higher priority, warning that isolating the country entirely risks abandoning the population while allowing transnational criminal networks to operate with total impunity.
“At the same time, Myanmar’s crisis is increasingly spilling across its borders. Transnational organised crime, including scam centres, narcotics production and human trafficking, is booming. These developments mean that Myanmar’s instability is no longer just a domestic problem or a humanitarian concern, but a regional and global challenge.”
Richard Horsey, Senior Myanmar Advisor at International Crisis Group
