Benedict Rogers for UCA News
It is midnight in Myanmar, and if the world does not act soon – and with urgency and determination – the country will be engulfed in deeper darkness for a long time to come.
The death of Myanmar is underway, and yet its resurrection is still possible if the international community acts.
It is understandable, given Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and the appalling crisis in the Middle East between Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, that the eyes of the world are somewhat preoccupied.
Nevertheless, genocide cannot be ignored, crimes against humanity must not go unpunished, and the dismantling of a fledgling democracy – albeit very nascent – should not be allowed. Freedom, however fragile, should not be strangled in its infancy and with impunity.
For over 50 years, Myanmar was ruled by a succession of military dictatorships, most of the time led by General Ne Win, who seized power in a coup in 1962. For almost a decade, from about 2011 until the latest coup in 2021, Myanmar appeared to be on a fragile and bumpy trajectory towards more democracy, freedom, and peace until Feb. 1, 2021.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, put his ambitions and interests ahead of the people and seized power in a coup, plunging the country back into the darkness of dictatorship.
Since the coup, Myanmar has endured a new daily nightmare. Over 3.3 million people have been displaced, according to the UN, and at least 5,350 civilians have been killed. These are likely to be dramatic underestimates. At least 27,400 individuals have been arrested and jailed – and as many as 1,853 have died in custody, including 88 children and 125 women. For many, the primary cause of death has been torture or denial of medical treatment.
Now, there are concerns about the fate of Myanmar’s democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. At least two senior members of her National League for Democracy (NLD) party have died in custody – including party vice-chairman and former Mandalay Region chief minister Zaw Myint Maung, who died aged 73 of leukemia. The party’s oldest member, U Win Htein, is in jail and suffers from diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart problems.
The international community must mount a concerted campaign for the release of Myanmar’s political prisoners. Otherwise, as activist Ko Bo Kyi says, it is “akin to slowly torturing them to death.”
The latest arrests give rise to yet more concerns over torture, particularly for the fate of activists Paing Phyo Min and Shein Wai Aung.
Despite the constant stream of bad news from Myanmar, there is some cause for hope, as the military is clearly on the back foot.
In a recent interview, Chris Sidoti, a member of the Special Advisory Council on Myanmar, a group of independent, international human rights experts, said that three and a half years after the coup, “we have passed the tipping point.”
The military is retreating to the major cities, and the armed resistance groups are now controlling more territory. Only 14 percent of the country’s territory and 33 percent of the population are under stable military control.
“The military will lose, but when that will happen is hard to predict,” he argues. “It’s conceivable that it could collapse completely by the first half of next year, or this could go on for another three to five years.”
However, the military’s defeat will come at a very high price for the people of Myanmar. As it loses ground, the military is resorting more to air power, deploying what Sidoti describes as a “scorched earth” policy with “a whole new scale of destruction.”
The human rights and humanitarian crisis will continue to worsen, compounded by natural disasters such as Cyclone Mocha in 2023 and Typhoon Yagi last month.
The United Nations (UN) response to the crisis in Myanmar has been widely criticized. Last week, the UN’s Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, said the UN’s approach was “clearly not working.”
Sidoti agreed, calling on the UN to “play more of a political role” to seek an end to the crisis. “The UN secretary-general hasn’t gone to the region to try to deal with the situation in Myanmar and has shown very little public interest.”
He is right – Antonio Guterres must step up, visit the region and show leadership.
Sidoti also said the UN should establish closer relations with the National Unity Government (NUG), the legitimate representatives of the people comprised of those elected in the 2020 general election, and with the country’s ethnic groups and neighboring countries to establish channels for cross-border humanitarian aid to Myanmar’s displaced peoples.
Targeted sanctions against Myanmar’s military should be further tightened and, in particular, sanctions against those who supply jet fuel to the junta.
Last week Oliver Windridge, the director of illicit finance policy at The Sentry, and Yadanar Maung, spokesperson for Justice for Myanmar, called for stricter enforcement of US sanctions imposed last year, to stop the “bloodbath” that continues.
The airstrikes by the Myanmar military will only stop when its ability to conduct them is curtailed, and that can only happen if the US enforces jet fuel sanctions “all along the supply chain of international enablers.”
Like-minded allies should also adopt and enforce similar jet fuel sanctions. Andrews, Sidoti, Windridge, and Yadanar Maung are all spot-on.
The international community must step up its efforts and use every tool available to cut the lifelines that keep the junta in power and provide a lifeline to the people of Myanmar. That means targeted sanctions and the enforcement of those sanctions, especially against jet fuel.
It means further support for the accountability mechanisms already underway at the International Court of Justice, through the courts in Argentina where a case is underway, and through either the International Criminal Court or a special tribunal to bring the perpetrators of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Myanmar to justice.
And it means cross-border humanitarian aid to reach the people most in need. Myanmar’s nightmare can be brought to an end, but only when the UN and the international community step up, take notice and act.
*The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official editorial position of UCA News.
Benedict Rogers is a British human rights activist and journalist based in London. DVB publishes a diversity of opinions that does not reflect DVB editorial policy. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our stories: [email protected]
