China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told media in Beijing on Tuesday that Peng Daxun, the head of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) was in Kunming, China to receive medical care. The response come after the media reported that Chinese authorities detained and placed the MNDAA leader under house arrest.
Peng had “previously applied to come to China for medical care, and is currently undergoing treatment and recuperation,” said Lin Jian, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson. But Lin Jian did not confirm Peng Daxun’s exact location or condition while in China.
The MNDAA is primarily composed of ethnic Kokang Chinese and is one of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed groups. It primarily operates near the Myanmar-China border in northern Shan State. It is also a member of the Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA).
The Brotherhood Alliance launched a major offensive against the military across northern Shan State called Operation 1027 on Oct. 27, 2023. It made sweeping gains during the first half of the operation, taking control of 14 towns in the region, including Laukkai – the capital of the Kokang Self-Administered Zone (SAZ).
The MNDAA had previously controlled the SAZ up to 2009 when it was driven out by pro-military forces and a Border Guard Force (BGF) was installed to support the military.
A ceasefire brokered by Beijing between the Brotherhood Alliance and the military brought a temporary truce to the fighting in northern Shan State on Jan. 11.
Many Myanmar-China political analysts believe that Beijing gave its tacit approval for the Brotherhood Alliance to launch Operation 1027 over the regime in Naypyidaw’s failure to crack down on cyber scam centers along its 1,370 mile (2,204 km) border.
The truce was short-lived, with the Brotherhood Alliance and the People’s Defense Force (PDF) launching a joint offensive in northern Shan State and neighboring Mandalay Region the week of June 25 to July 3.
Resistance forces led by the MNDAA would go on to take control of Lashio, the largest city in northern Shan State, after seizing the Northeastern Regional Military Command (RMC) headquarters on Aug. 3.
However, analysts add that the MNDAA seizure of Lashio may have crossed a red line for Beijing, with China worried that the fall of the city and the Northeastern RMC may lead to a collapse of the regime in Naypyidaw.
China’s Foreign Ministry’s Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Deng Xijun met with leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), a close ally of the MNDAA, on Aug. 27 in Pu’er City, Yunnan Province of China. Deng Xijun told the UWSA that it would take action against the MNDAA if it did not withdraw from Lashio.
Richard Horsey, the senior Myanmar advisor at International Crisis Group, told DVB that the alleged detention of Peng Daxun is a likely effort by Beijing to force the MNDAA to withdraw from Lashio.
“If true this is of huge significance. It signals that China is willing to go quite far to bring the MNDAA into line,” said Horsey. “It also demonstrates the extent of China’s pivot over the last few months in its effort to prevent a disorderly collapse of the regime. That can have a huge impact on conflict dynamics, giving a boost to the regime and potentially slowing the momentum of the resistance.”
Pro-military social media channels claimed that the MNDAA is gradually withdrawing its forces from Lashio to Laukkai. But a source close to the MNDAA told DVB that it is not retreating from the city.
“The news that we withdrew our forces from Lashio is incorrect,” the source said on the condition of anonymity. The MNDAA was founded in 1989 after the collapse of the Communist Party of Burma. It is a member of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee, an alliance of ethnic armed groups led by the UWSA.
