A new research report based on in-depth interviews with military defectors reveals mounting internal decay, fear-driven compliance, and shifting defection patterns inside Myanmar’s armed forces.
Released by civil society organization People’s Goal at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand (FCCT) on Sept. 28, the study—titled Wind of Change: Inside the Defection Wave and the Future of Myanmar’s Security Sector—presents rare insider perspectives on an institution buckling under moral crisis and frontline pressure
Compiled from interviews conducted between 2023-26 with 60 military personnel, who defected with their families, detail why they decided to break ranks.
Defectors consistently cited the military’s violent suppression of peaceful demonstrators and the illegal seizure of power from the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb. 1, 2021 as the primary reasons.
Despite widespread internal disillusionment, mass defections involving entire units have not yet materialized due to an overwhelming system of control.
The regime routinely uses family members as leverage, holding families residing in military housing compounds as virtual hostages.
“Many soldiers want to leave but are held back by fear for their families and the loss of their pensions, housing and documents. When they do leave, they need to know they will be safe,” said Naung Yoe, a military defector who now works at People’s Goal.
The report identifies a major transition in defection dynamics since 2023.
While the number of Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) members, who are civil servants refusing to work under the military, peaked in 2021 and have since slowed due to tight surveillance and shrinking support networks, battlefield surrenders and frontline defections are rising sharply amid continuous combat defeats.
While over 15,000 military and police personnel were officially accepted into the CDM by the National Unity Government (NUG) as of 2023, monthly departures remain steady.
“Departures from the junta’s forces have continued unabated, with public data indicating that more than 200 soldiers and police officers defect, desert, or surrender every month,” said Thinzar Shunlei Yi, the executive committee member at People’s Goal.
Examining the high command, the report reveals that top military leadership is not united by ideological conviction, but by shared economic interests, mutual complicity, and protection against international prosecution.
“On the surface, there appears to be cohesion. But beneath that exterior, there is fierce competition for rank, power, and economic profit.
The factor binding them together is not mutual loyalty, but rather the vested interests they share,” an anonymous military defector was cited as saying in the report.
“The people we spoke to were clear that Myanmar does not need a reformed version of this military. It needs an entirely new institution under civilian control,” said Khun Kham Kaung, the report’s lead researcher.
