Myanmar’s regime and a key opposition group have indicated they will extend a ceasefire to support more aid efforts after a devastating earthquake, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Friday, following rare high-level talks.

Myanmar has been in the throes of an expanding conflict since its military ousted an elected government in 2021 and formed a regime in Naypyidaw to control the country.

On March 28, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit the country, killing over 3,600 people and creating a humanitarian crisis.

Anwar, who is also the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional bloc, has held talks since Thursday with Myanmar’s regime leader Min Aung Hlaing and with the alternative National Unity Government (NUG) that is battling the military, seeking to curb the ongoing conflict to push aid into the country.

“There will be a ceasefire and no unnecessary provocations, because otherwise the whole humanitarian exercise would fail,” Anwar told reporters in Bangkok, Thailand.

“My initial exchange with both the [regime leader] and NUG has been very successful,” he added.

After the March earthquake, Myanmar’s regime announced a 20-day ceasefire on April 2, following a similar move by the NUG, with more than 3.5 million people already displaced by the civil war and an economy in tatters.

The regime, however, has continued military operations in some areas, including airstrikes, according to the U.N. and other groups.

In his talks with the NUG, Anwar said he had conveyed that ASEAN would continue dialogue with it and the regime, and humanitarian aid would be provided to required areas, irrespective of who was in control.

“We understand that ASEAN, in its role as a regional body, may seek to engage with all actors involved in Myanmar’s situation,” a NUG spokesperson told Reuters.

“However, it is crucial that such engagement does not grant legitimacy to the military junta led by Min Aung Hlaing.”

The talks led by Anwar match Thailand’s approach to the Myanmar crisis, with conflict cessation necessary for humanitarian assistance to work, its foreign ministry spokesman said.

“This is a positive first step for ASEAN to engage with Myanmar,” Nikorndej Balankura told reporters on Friday.

Peace and polls

Anwar’s move to directly engage with the regime, after years of ASEAN barring Myanmar’s generals from its meetings for their failure to comply with its peace plan, could provide a potential opening to resolve the protracted conflict, analysts said.

In particular, Anwar should extend his dialogue process to include four of Myanmar’s oldest ethnic armed organisations that control swathes of the country’s borderlands, said Fuadi Pitsuwan, a political science scholar at Bangkok’s Thammasat University.

“They are critical stakeholders in any viable peace process,” he said.

The ASEAN bloc, which also includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, will remain focused on implementing its peace plan, Anwar said.

“We will continue to engage all parties in support of peace, reconciliation and the well-being of the people of Myanmar,” he shared on social media after the meetings.

Saw Taw Nee, spokesman for the Karen National Union (KNU), a major ethnic armed group that holds territory along the Myanmar-Thailand border, urged ASEAN to change its approach and reach out.

“ASEAN leaders must give credit and recognise us,” he told Reuters.

The renewed move to intensify dialogue in Myanmar also comes amid a regime plan to hold a general election in December, an exercise derided by its critic as a sham to keep the generals in power through proxies.

In Bangkok, Anwar underlined the need for an inclusive, free and fair election – a message he said that had been delivered to the regime, which wants to press ahead with the election plan without delay.

Still, some analysts warn that ASEAN must be cautious.

“Min Aung Hlaing has shown that he cannot be trusted,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.

“So ASEAN under Anwar has to be careful not to get taken for a ride.”

REUTERS