Guest contributor
Tani Sebro
On November 25, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced the administration’s intention to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Burma, citing that the country’s conditions “no longer hinder the safe return” of Burmese nationals and that allowing them to remain in the U.S. is “contrary to the national interest.”
As a political ethnographer who has spent nearly two decades working with communities forcibly displaced by Burma’s wars, both in the U.S. and along the Thai-Burma border in refugee camps among migrant communities, I can unequivocally say: this determination does not reflect realities on the ground.
Burma remains a dangerous conflict zone
TPS was first granted to Burmese nationals following the 2021 military coup d’état that unseated the democratically-elected government and unleashed a nationwide conflict that led to one of the most significant displacement crises in Burma’s history.
It is estimated that over five million people have been uprooted, and armed conflict between the military junta and over 170 Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) plagues every state in Burma.
Airstrikes against villages, schools, and hospitals have become commonplace. Humanitarian aid to most of Burma has been blocked, while journalists and aid workers are imprisoned or forced to flee. Large regions of the country remain under martial law.
Nothing in Burma has fundamentally changed.
A military election will not grant safety
Yet the U.S. government contends that Burmese nationals can “safely return,” due to planned elections, as well as a lifting of the military-imposed state of emergency.
The junta will undoubtedly control the upcoming elections, as they have been since the military first usurped power in 1962. Elections administered by a junta that routinely imprisons political opponents and wages war on its own people is not a step towards peace and stability in the region. They are tools of autocracy – what political scientists call electoral authoritarianism.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is advancing a narrative – that Burma’s ceasefire talks, looming elections, and end of a state of emergency indicate stability on the ground – the reality, however, is that the political and economic landscape remains hostile and dangerous.
Indeed, EAOs have made significant gains in administering certain territories, but military threats, forced conscription, and widespread economic destitution challenge these gains.
Today, Burma has become a patchwork of armed jurisdictions with uneven and often dangerous security conditions. Despite the junta’s assurances that the TPS returnees would be given special consideration, there is a real danger of refoulement or persecution upon return.
Had DHS officials spoken with the refugees along the Thai-Burma border, pro-democracy leaders, aid workers, or academics working with the exiled population, perhaps they would not claim that it is now safe for Burmese nationals to return.
TPS holders are far from being a security threat
More concerning still is that DHS is invoking that “national interest” justifies terminating TPS for fewer than 4000 Burmese nationals who are granted this protection following the 2021 coup.
The U.S. government cites visa overstays, statistics, prior Trump-era restrictions, and vague “risk factors” – providing no evidence that TPS holders from Burma pose a security threat to the U.S. population.
In reality, TPS recipients undergo some of the most rigorous background checks and must meet exceedingly high standards to maintain their status.
These recipients are students, scholars, caregivers, construction workers, and small business owners, and are helpful contributors to the U.S. economy and culture. Many of them have become deeply rooted in American communities over the past five years.
Some Burmese nationals have requested permission to travel back to Burma, and DHS should not interpret this request as indicating safety in the country.
Many migrants and students travel home to visit ailing parents or to assist family members after the recent earthquake that devastated central Burma. These occasional return requests do not indicate improved security but rather are symptoms of an ongoing catastrophe.
The US is failing in its humanitarian obligations
For decades, the U.S. has positioned itself as a supporter of democracy in Burma. Previously, it had condemned the junta’s atrocity and sanctioned members of the military leadership. Removing TPS undermines the U.S. commitment to democracy and signals to the junta that they believe conditions have improved under military rule, when they have not.
Following this decision, Burmese families will return to a dangerous country, and students will be torn away from their studies at U.S. universities.
Returning refugees to a country where the junta continues to bomb civilians and arrest dissidents will embolden a regime that thrives on international indifference.
Congress must intervene
If DHS deems the TPS statute to have expired, Congress must step in to create protections. This can be done through legislative extensions, a Deferred Enforced Departure designation, or other humanitarian parole pathways.
If the U.S. truly supports democracy and the people of Burma, it must show through policy that they are willing to provide legal pathways for TPS recipients to stay. Otherwise, the U.S. runs the risk of exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Burma and further emboldening the junta.
Ending TPS now emboldens the junta
The junta in Naypyidaw, with its close ties to the Kremlin and Beijing, has welcomed the news that the U.S. is suspending TPS. Indeed, ending TPS signals that the U.S. has accepted the junta’s propaganda and normalizes, rather than sanctions, their widespread human rights violations.
This move places Burmese students, workers, and families in immediate jeopardy, as many cannot safely return. Many TPS recipients belong to ethnic or religious minorities that the army has systematically targeted. Others are young men between the ages of 18 and 35 who will now face conscription under the junta’s forced conscription law. The U.S. cannot claim more leadership in the region while simultaneously forcing refugees who left to escape the junta back into the line of fire.
The US must return to its humanitarian commitments
If DHS deems that TPS cannot be extended, policymakers in the U.S. must use alternative tools. If members of Congress truly support democratization worldwide, they must ensure that people fleeing military authoritarianism are not abandoned at this crucial time.
My research on humanitarian aid along the Thai-Burma border shows that when powerful nations decide that some crises matter more than others without consulting affected people on the ground, this triggers a second wave of instability and exacerbates crises.
The hardworking Burmese families and students who came to the US seeking refuge – they hope for a time when they can safely return to Myanmar to help rebuild their country. That time is not now.
Tani Sebro is Chair of the Department of Politics at California State Polytechnic University, Humboldt (Cal Poly Humboldt)
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