Guest contributor
By Shalini Perumal
In an increasingly intricate geopolitical environment, India’s decision to host a delegation from Myanmar’s military, alongside representatives from ethnic armed groups and opposition political parties, marks an important departure in its foreign policy towards its eastern neighbor.
Recent engagements at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) in early November illustrate India’s potential intention to facilitate dialogue and support a “Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned” resolution to the escalating conflict within the country, as voiced by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
However, this initiative also indicates the delicate balancing act that New Delhi continues to perform amidst diverse regional influences, and its implications for democracy and stability in Myanmar. The MEA affirmed its commitment to ongoing consultations with a broad array of stakeholders in Myanmar, including anti-military forces, by highlighting the significance of inclusivity in resolving the conflict.
At the same time, the recent discussions included military representatives and political entities aligned with the military, signaling India’s readiness to engage with the existing regime, and legitimize its 2021 coup. Yet, by choosing a strategic approach that shifts from a previously more exclusive focus on the military, the Indian government is making a statement that sustainable peace necessitates dialogue with all parties involved, including often-marginalized ethnic groups and opposition factions.
This, though not enough, is a start. Yet, it is important for India to realize that “experimenting” in diplomatic waters does not bring back those killed by the military, nor does it suffice to dismantle illegal military rule. The duality of India’s engagement strategy, though might seem welcome, is conflicting.
By welcoming both the military establishment and ethnic armed organizations, including delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG), India positions itself as a facilitator of dialogue while still acknowledging the military regime. India thus continues to be complicit for its widely condemned oppressive measures and human rights abuses since the 2021 coup.
Yet, by pushing for a more inclusive dialogue, India could potentially guide Myanmar towards a balanced democratic framework replete with shared governance and federalism—objectives echoed by ethnic groups and emerging political entities.
The timing of these dialogues is equally significant. Amidst Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s high-profile visit to China—set against a backdrop of declining relations with Western democracies—India’s outreach conveys a clear diplomatic message.
In an era where nations like China seek to deepen their influence in Myanmar, India’s engagement with various factions may be seen as an attempt to assert its regional relevance and present itself as an alternative diplomatic partner. However, this necessitates a careful articulation of India’s position on the military’s legitimacy while upholding human rights and democratic principles.
Furthermore, the discussions surrounding constitutionalism and the intricate needs of a federal Myanmar signify a meaningful shift in governance proposals in a nation marred by ethnic strife and historical grievances. By facilitating dialogue on these critical issues, India may finally see the importance in amplifying the voices of underrepresented groups.
India’s historical ties with Myanmar offer a unique perspective on the current situation; however, its approach must remain mindful of the pitfalls of realpolitik. While cultivating relationships with the military may yield immediate political advantages, true long-term stability relies on addressing the grievances of ethnic minorities and embedding democratic norms, including acknowledging the power of the people to a free and fair election, and the dismantling of the regime ensconced in Naypyidaw.
A failure to achieve resolution could ignite further violence and instability, potentially jeopardizing regional security—an overarching concern for India as it grapples with its own border issues and the escalating influence of China.
As India actively engages with both sides, it must also consider the perceptions of international stakeholders. Increasing scrutiny from global human rights organizations and Western governments necessitates that India navigate its diplomatic strategy carefully, ensuring it does not appear to endorse authoritarian governance implicitly.
The Indian government’s role in shaping Myanmar’s political landscape presents an opportunity to recalibrate its diplomatic posture within the region. By abetting communication with multiple stakeholders, India has the potential to cultivate a broader peace framework that addresses the various needs of Myanmar’s diverse society.
However, this balancing act will require skilled navigation to ensure that the voice of the Myanmar people is central to the conflict resolution process. As history has demonstrated, the journey toward peace is arduous and littered with obstacles, particularly in Myanmar where any recognition of the military that continues to perform grievous human rights violations is an affront to the people of Myanmar.
Shalini Perumal is a creative international development professional who has worked previously in Mae Sot, Thailand at Mae Tao Clinic. She is currently a freelance journalist as well as Communications Officer at ActionAid India in New Delhi. The views expressed in the article are her own and do not necessarily reflect those of the organization.
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