Guest contributor
Antonio Graceffo
On May 12, the Myanmar Air Force bombed a school in central Sagaing Region, near the epicenter of the recent earthquake, killing as many as 20 students and two teachers.
These attacks are part of a broader campaign that saw over 4,000 airstrikes in the first three years since the 2021 Myanmar military coup—and now, in year four, the pace is only accelerating.
Between March and April, the regime launched at least 140 air strikes, including areas devastated by the March 28 earthquake such as Sagaing and Mandalay regions.
Air superiority has allowed the junta, which seized power in 2021, to maintain its grip on power, despite losing ground to resistance forces over the last four years.
The junta continues to obstruct any path to peace, even as it publicly agreed to observe a ceasefire for post-quake humanitarian relief since April 2.
A 7.7-magnitude quake struck central Myanmar, killing over 3,600 people and injuring more than 5,000. Survivors now face the added trauma of ongoing airstrikes, which have been the single most destructive force in terms of producing casualties and destroying buildings—homes, schools, hospitals, temples, and churches.
They are also the one weapon the junta possesses that the resistance has no counter for. Only the junta has aircraft. Resistance forces now control most of the country, with the exception of the largest cities and state capitals, but victory remains elusive.
The war threatens to drag on indefinitely because of the junta’s air superiority. The U.S. and many allied Western nations have imposed sanctions on the junta, including restrictions on jet fuel.
However, despite these measures, the junta continues to receive steady supplies. In an interview with TaiwanPlus, Mark Farmaner of Burma Campaign UK explained that this is largely due to the failure of sanctions to target international suppliers.
“The Myanmar military doesn’t have the ability to manufacture its own jet fuel,” said Farmaner. “We have Chinese and Vietnamese companies—shipping and fuel firms—involved in the supply indirectly.”
While Western governments have issued statements claiming to restrict aviation fuel, Farmaner criticized them for only sanctioning a few Myanmar-based entities. “They haven’t sanctioned any of the international suppliers yet,” he added.
The consequences of this loophole are dire. “More than four million people have been forced to flee their homes because of airstrikes or conflict,” said Farmaner.
While the bombings themselves are deadly, he emphasized that the indirect effects, lack of shelter, food, and healthcare, can be just as fatal. These conditions grew even worse after the earthquake struck regions already devastated by war.
Before the quake, more than 20 million people, one-third of Myanmar’s population, were in need of humanitarian aid due to conflict, economic collapse, and ongoing displacement. Now, over six million people in the quake zone, including two million children, face what the World Health Organization (WHO) calls “an emergency within an emergency.”
Airstrikes continue to destroy homes, hospitals, and shelters, while the earthquake has further damaged fragile infrastructure, leaving communities without safe water, sanitation, or medical care.
With healthcare facilities overwhelmed, medical supplies running low, and the monsoon season arriving, the risk of disease outbreaks is growing. As international aid remains limited and jet fuel continues to reach the junta, Myanmar’s civilians are left exposed to the compounding threats of war and disaster.
The National Unity Government (NUG), the democratic government in exile, along with international human rights organizations, has called for a total embargo on jet fuel sales to the country.
However, according to Farmaner, the global community continues to hesitate, fearing that a blanket prohibition could further damage Myanmar’s already fragile civilian economy. In response to these concerns, civil society groups and campaigns like Blood Money Campaign argue that the risk is justified.
“We know from past experience that even when jet fuel is delivered for civilian use, the military can take it,” said Farmaner. “So the only way to cut off the supply of jet fuel to the military is to cut off supply of jet fuel to Myanmar itself.”
Western hesitation, he argued, is misplaced. “One of the reasons they give is, ‘Oh, we’re worried about the economic impact.’ But this is a decision for the people of Myanmar to make,” he said.
“This is the people in the country who are suffering from the airstrikes saying, we need you to do this. Because without the jet fuel, the jets can’t fly. And if the jets can’t fly, they can’t bomb.”
Enforcement of international sanctions remains weak. The junta continues to access aviation fuel due to inadequate monitoring, loopholes, and insufficient international action. The junta has seized control of the national budget and exploited natural resource revenues to fund military operations, including the purchase of aviation fuel and equipment used to suppress civilians.
Much of the junta’s fuel is Jet A-1—the same type used in civilian aviation, which the junta diverts from civilian shipments. At the center of the junta’s fuel supply chain is the Myanma Petrochemical Enterprise (MPE), a state-owned entity under the Ministry of Energy, which oversees the import, storage, and distribution of jet fuel.
MPE works with crony conglomerates like Asia Sun Group, which has served as the military’s main commercial fuel importer.
Amnesty International documented at least three shipments of aviation fuel to Myanmar between January and June 2024, continuing a pattern seen throughout 2023, despite international sanctions and repeated calls to cut off the junta’s access.
The shipments arrived at Yangon’s Thilawa Port, now under junta control, via complex supply chains involving multiple sales and offshore transfers. Fuel was routed through Vietnam, Singapore, the UAE, and China, with the Chinese-owned tanker HUITONG78 playing a central role.
Companies involved included Sahara Energy, CNOOC Singapore, and Royal Vopak. These types of transactions frequently pass through member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, underscoring the role of ASEAN in enabling the junta through inaction.
At least five British insurance firms have underwritten sanctioned deliveries to Myanmar’s MPE and Asia Sun, facilitating the junta’s access to aviation fuel. The U.K. government could easily prevent its insurers from supporting sanctioned oil trades, as it did to enforce the G7’s $60 USD per barrel price cap on Russian crude.
This enforcement included blacklisting vessels and insurers involved in circumventing sanctions, thereby restricting their access to U.K.-based insurance services.
Applying similar measures, the U.K. could prohibit domestic insurers from underwriting entities linked to Myanmar’s military, leveraging its regulatory authority to close financial loopholes and uphold international sanctions.
Meanwhile, China’s state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) continues supplying the Myanmar military with fighter jets and transport aircraft, including the JF-17, FTC-2000G, and Y-8.
Justice for Myanmar has confirmed that at least five AVIC aircraft types have been used in junta airstrikes. Although some investors have pulled out of AVIC, Airbus, partially owned by France, Spain, and Germany, still holds equity in the company and has even expanded its partnerships.
The fact that Western nations, particularly E.U. member states actively enabling the junta is deeply troubling. If both the E.U. and ASEAN are facilitating the regime’s operations, the question remains: who will stop them?
To end this cycle, Blood Money Campaign and Justice for Myanmar urge the global community to act decisively. The U.S. must fully enforce jet fuel sanctions, while other governments must strengthen measures to dismantle the junta’s supply network.
This includes implementing robust monitoring mechanisms, exposing intermediaries, and holding accountable fuel traders, insurers, shippers, and aerospace firms. All direct and indirect relationships with MPE and Asia Sun must end.
European governments must also pressure Airbus to use its influence to cut military ties with AVIC and halt all current and future aircraft transfers. The U.S., E.U., and ASEAN must move quickly to shut down logistical hubs in Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and China, and enforce strict end-user certification at every level.
Antonio Graceffo, PhD, holds advanced degrees in economics and national security. A graduate of American Military University, he has spent more than 20 years in Asia, contributing to think tanks and international media.
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