The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) re-engagement with Myanmar under the regime that seized power during a military coup on Feb. 1, 2021 runs the risk of providing legitimacy to the new pro-military administration in Naypyidaw led by coup leader Min Aung Hlaing and undermining the regional group’s own plan to end violence in the war-torn country, analysts said.
Foreign Ministers from ASEAN’s other 10-member states met with the Myanmar regime Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe at an informal gathering in Bangkok, Thailand, on July 12, the first such in-person meeting with a senior regime official since Min Aung Hlaing accepted the ASEAN Five Point Consensus, the regional bloc’s peace plan, but didn’t implement it upon his return to Myanmar in April 2021.
Officials described the meeting as an opportunity for Myanmar to brief its neighbours on conditions inside the country, but Richard Horsey, senior Asia adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the risk was that the meeting was a step in normalizing political engagement before any change had been achieved.
“It would be a mistake for ASEAN to accept Myanmar back into the fold without getting anything meaningful in return,” he said.
The meeting marks a test of whether ASEAN will hold the line on its own peace framework or allow Myanmar’s regime to regain regional standing without meaningful steps toward ending the conflict, such as releasing political prisoners including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi or restoring full democracy.
Myanmar has been in turmoil since Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government was ousted in the 2021 coup. The regime’s response to nationwide protests then fuelled an armed uprising that has become a prolonged civil war.
ASEAN agreed on the Five-Point Consensus for Myanmar, which called for an end to the violence, dialogue among all parties, humanitarian assistance and the appointment of a special envoy.
When Min Aung Hlaing did not implement the peace plan, this prompted ASEAN to bar him and his officials from its top-level meetings and invite only non-political representatives from Myanmar.
The pro-military parliament, which has succeeded the regime, approved a motion last week urging Myanmar’s new government to counter ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus, calling it interference in the country’s internal affairs, regime media reported.
Opposition groups, including the National Unity Government (NUG), which is in exile, and powerful ethnic armed groups such as Karen National Union (KNU), released a joint statement on July 11 voicing their concerns about the informal meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers.
The Myanmar resistance groups called for ASEAN to engage with all principal democratic political stakeholders in the country.
So far, an estimated 100,000 people have been killed in the conflict, more than 3.6 million people displaced from their homes, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project and the U.N.
Aung San Suu Kyi was reportedly transferred from prison to house arrest on April 30 but her whereabouts are unknown since the regime hasn’t provided any evidence of the relocation.
Many senior NLD party members and other pro-democracy opponents of the regime have been jailed or barred from politics.
ASEAN may be losing leverage
ASEAN may be conceding too much to Naypyidaw, and losing any leverage it has in negotiations, analysts said.
“The central question is whether the organization will uphold its own agreed framework or permit re-engagement with the military regime without requiring meaningful implementation of the Five-Point Consensus,” said Ye Myo Hein, a senior fellow at the Southeast Asia Peace Institute.
Thailand’s Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said that the “informal” talks in Bangkok did not mean ASEAN was abandoning its existing position.
“This process of engagement does not mean any change in our basic position as reflected in the Five-Point Consensus, but it does mean achieving towards engagement, listening, and being realistic about what can be achieved,” he said.
The BBC Burmese service has reported that Sihasak planned to hold separate informal meetings with some ethnic armed organizations, like the KNU, and the NUG. There has not yet been any confirmation of such talks from officials or the opposition groups.
The signs of rapprochement come some six months after a phased election run by the regime that the U.N. and Western governments dismissed as a sham designed to preserve military rule under a civilian veneer.
That process culminated in April, when a pro-military parliament elected regime leader Min Aung Hlaing as president, formalizing the power he has held since the coup.
Analysts said any premature re-engagement would weaken ASEAN’s ability to implement its peace plan and influence the Myanmar government.
“Once the regime secures the regional legitimacy it seeks without meeting any meaningful conditions, ASEAN will have far fewer tools to encourage compliance with the Five-Point Consensus or promote a genuine political dialogue,” said Ye Myo Hein at the Southeast Asia Peace Institute.
REUTERS
