Nearly 100 military vehicles entered Mogok Township, Mandalay Region, on Friday as part of a China-brokered ceasefire deal between the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the regime in Naypyidaw reached one month earlier, on Oct. 29. Mogok is located 124 miles (200 km) north of Mandalay.
Soe Htay, a Mogok resident and pro-democracy activist, told DVB that the TNLA will keep a liaison office in Mogok town and continue operating mining sites in the township as the lucrative ruby mining industry is a source of revenue for both the regime and ethnic armed groups.
He added that the People’s Defense Force (PDF), which assisted the TNLA in seizing and holding Mogok, has redeployed its troops outside of town.
Lway Yay Oo, the TNLA spokesperson, didn’t respond to a DVB request for comment. However, a PDF spokesperson told DVB earlier this month that the military has recaptured almost all of Madaya Township, which is located next to Mogok, and is preparing to launch a counteroffensive to retake neighbouring Singu Township.
Singu is located 34-57 miles (54-92 km) north of Madaya and Mandalay. It was seized by the PDF in July 2024 and is under National Unity Government (NUG) administration.
As a part of the ceasefire deal, the TNLA will also hand over Momeik Township in northern Shan State to regime control. Both Momeik and Mogok were seized by TNLA-led resistance forces in July 2024.
Moe Htet Nay, a member of the research group Nyan Lynn Thit Analytica, told DVB that China has applied “significant” pressure on resistance forces, including the three ethnic armed groups who are members of the Brotherhood Alliance, to stop fighting near its border and sign ceasefire deals.
The TNLA, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army (AA)-known collectively as the Brotherhood Alliance–launched Operation 1027 in an effort to stop cyber scams along the Myanmar-China border and seize territory from regime control on Oct. 27, 2023.
The MNDAA handed over Lashio Township and the regime’s Northeastern Regional Military Command (RMC) headquarters, which it seized in August 2024, to Naypyidaw control on April 22 as part of a China-brokered ceasefire deal between the MNDAA and the regime reached on Jan. 18.
A PDF member told DVB that pressure from Beijing on the TNLA and the MNDAA may also result in a reduced number of weapons going to other resistance forces. The AA continues its offensive in Arakan State, which it launched on Nov. 13, 2023.
The United Wa State Army (UWSA) said that it would no longer provide financial aid or weapons to any armed group in Myanmar, citing “Chinese pressure,” following a meeting with the TNLA, the MNDAA, and the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) in Pangsang, located 123 miles (198 km) east of Lashio, on Aug. 20.
The UWSA controls “Wa State,” an autonomous region which is composed of six townships, including the Wa Self-Administered Division, in northern and eastern Shan. It controls territory along the Myanmar borders with China and Thailand.
The regime’s Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced that elections—beginning on Dec. 28 and continuing into January 2026—will not be held in Mandalay’s Natogyi, Singu, and Mogok townships. Mandalay Region has a total of 28 townships.
